In the past month, I have visited many LED industry companies. Among them, there are packaging companies, lighting, lighting companies and power companies. Feel free to talk about the feelings of chatting with so many business owners or technical leaders and their own reflections, only personal opinions.
One of the causes of the loss of the technical direction: heavy production, light research and development.
At present, everyone's business is good, the chip factory has started to increase prices, the chips are often out of stock, and the factory operates 24 hours a day. Ask carefully, what are you doing? The most feedback you get is: SMD 2835, SMD 5730, COB, Flip COB and Light Engine. Ask again, what are you going to do next year? Most of the company's feedback, the expectations of next year are still not dare to look at, may still continue to do the current products. The problem with the reaction here is that the technical direction of the packaging company is not clear, or the seriousness has been lost. Most of the packaging plants do not have a research and development department, only the engineering and technology department. The engineers in the engineering and technical department are mainly responsible for the improvement of the production line and the adjustment of the process, and have no time to take into account the changes in the chip, the bracket material and other markets. The product route is basically following the big companies, CREE, PHILIPS, OSRAM companies do what, everyone will follow up. This is indeed a good way to adopt the follow-up strategy to wait for the opening of the market in the early stage of the industry development when the technical route is not clear. However, when the LED has entered the ordinary people's home, it needs to be innovative. How to stand out from the crowd and attract customers' attention. Many companies adopt a price strategy, as long as you dare to sell one, it will immediately drop to 9 gross. After a few rounds, everyone has no profit. The market has become a completely competitive market, and production companies do not have the right to decide on prices. At this time, the person in charge of the enterprise would like to know how to do it. What new products do? Looking back, I found that in recent years, in addition to earning a pile of equipment that has become second-hand, I have fed hundreds of employees and turned over hundreds. After the 10,000 tax, there is not much left. This is still a more successful business. If you go bankrupt, you won’t say it. The company found that in the past few years, it has ruined the investment in technology research and development due to its busy production, and found that it has not taken any new products and new technologies. This has led to the loss of the above technology.
The second cause of the loss of technical direction: downstream reverse guidance?
The customer will determine the company's resource allocation. Since companies need to maintain product profitability and invest limited resources in products that have more output, customers who purchase such products are invisibly allocated resources for the company. The downstream lighting factory determines the product investment and technical direction of the packaging plant. Since most of the products currently manufactured by LED lighting factories are still replacing traditional lamps, LED lighting products are directly cost-effective with traditional lamps PK. Traditional lamps have been processed from glass to metal for decades, and nearly a hundred years of development have achieved technological optimization, cost optimization and a relatively stable price. The popularity of LED lighting products has been less than ten years, and many technologies are still worth discussing. Some of the industrialization of technology has led to high costs. Lighting factories are demanding LED packaging devices in the process of competing with traditional lighting companies: light efficiency, color quality, thermal conductivity and price. These factors will determine the resource input of the LED packaging factory: reduce the cost or improve the quality? The ordinary packaging factory first sees the price, and believes that as long as the price is low, it can better develop customers. As a result, the packaging factory began to look for chips, brackets, glue, phosphors and other raw material manufacturers to reduce prices. The bracket was reduced from tens of yuan/K to a few yuan/K, which was completed in just two years. The chip factory is working hard to increase equipment and expand the factory to invest in dilute high equipment. Phosphors companies are more competitive, and some companies have begun to give away free yellow phosphors (with red powder sales), and it is still remembered that the price of the giant yellow phosphors was more than 20 grams a year. Another reason for the price reduction may be: the formation of qualifications for industry chain R&D personnel. Most of the extension R&D personnel are formed by famous doctors and returnees (except Beijing Hukou). The general qualifications of chip R&D personnel are master's degree, and the R&D engineers of packaging enterprises are mainly composed of undergraduate graduates. The lighting factory is mainly undergraduate and specialist. Most of the lights are nine-year compulsory education graduates. (The above part is not to discriminate against the practitioners with low academic qualifications, but to distinguish the technical details and direction of the various academic personnel, and there are many practitioners of vocational and technical colleges who are more powerful than the doctors). PhD students hope that undergraduates will ask for, and undergraduates need to find junior high school students to ask for technical feedback. Can this feedback mechanism find the right technical problem (except price)?
The third cause of the loss of the technical direction: the rising curve becomes slower?
The development of any technology cannot always be severe with the same 45° angle curve running, but the upward trend is slowly slowing down. The advancement of LED technology is determined by the epitaxial structure and chip structure and package design. At present, the main heterogeneous substrate of blue-and-white LED chips (manufacturing GaN on sapphire substrates) always has a Droop effect, and the quantum well structure is basically shaped. The use of graphic substrate, buffer layer optimization, surface roughening, transparent conductive layer, current expansion layer and other methods to improve the overall performance of the product is getting smaller and smaller (will certainly increase, but the amplitude is small). The effects of yellowing resistance, refractive index enhancement, bottom reflectivity, and solid crystal glue optimization of packaging materials are also getting smaller and smaller. A relatively stable curve has formed, leading companies to wait and see the next step.
How to crack the technical direction lost?
1. Adhere to the spirit of artisans and find customers with high quality (not high profit margins). The direction of technology development is not terrible. What is terrible is that we have lost our ingenuity. Only high-quality customers can make positive feedback instead of blindly perpetuating prices. Get positive feedback to better find the product direction and match the technical direction.
2. Focus on product development and technology research and development. The product development system maintains existing customers and the technology development platform ensures next-generation product development. You need to sink your heart to do the technology and become an engineer rather than a technician.
3. The cautious investment in the niche market. The current concept of infrared and ultraviolet is very hot, and it is recommended to be cautious. The niche market that everyone sees is an illusion, and once it enters the Red Sea.
4. Challenge products with thresholds. It is a good thing to have a technical threshold, and companies need to overcome obstacles and competitors.
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