Sun Xinguo, Assistant Secretary-General of China Electronics Video Industry Association
Sina Technology News April 22 news hosted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Operations Monitoring and Coordination Bureau, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Electronic Information Division, China Electronics Video Industry Association (CVIA) and Ovi Consulting (AVC) company hosted " In the first quarter of 2010, China's electronic information industry economic operation and color TV industry research conference was held in Beijing today. Sina Technology broadcasted the conference live.
The picture shows Sun Xinguo, assistant secretary general of China Electronics Video Industry Association. The following is the content of his speech:
Sun Xinguo: The electronic information industry conference is a daily work. It started in the third quarter of 2006. This is the 15th session. We will make regular releases every quarter. The first is the analysis of the overall operation of the electronic information industry. The operation situation and the technical trends of the hot spots in the color TV market were discussed in detail, and some discussions were made on the development of the industry and the hot spots.
There are two main parts of my speech today: an introduction to the overall operation analysis of the color TV industry in the first quarter, and a preliminary discussion on the development model of Internet TV. Then take a look
In the first quarter, the color TV industry basically started a good situation of a good start. In the first quarter, the color TV was 24.7 million units, a very high growth rate of 42.8%. The domestic market shipments reached 12.2 million units, with a growth rate of 32.8%. Compared with the first quarter of 2008, the growth rate was 26.9%, and the export volume was 21.1%. Just now, Deputy Director Gao Sumei introduced the first quarter of the electronic information industry. The export volume increased by 34.6% in 2009, compared with -0.8 in 2008. %, which reflects the fact that the operation of the color TV industry is better than the production, sales and export of the entire electronic information product.
From the specific data, LCD TVs strongly promote the main factors of industrial growth. One of the different characteristics of the past is that CRT TV demand rebounded. The domestic and car export market demand is relatively good. It is the first battle to see its output shrinking year-on-year. In 2008, the year-on-year decline of CRT in the first quarter was 40% compared with 08%, and 4.1% this year. The structural adjustment of this product is basically an annual range of 10-12%, so that the color TV industry situation in the first quarter Very good, but also beyond our expectations, the specific data is not read. Looking at this export, there has been a significant increase in exports. In the first quarter, the export of color TVs exceeded the same period in 2008. I compared the export situation in the first quarter from 08 to 10. The above table is for each month. The situation, from this table, sees that the form of the first quarter of 2010 is better. I am more concerned about the price of this export. Color TV is 219 US dollars in 2008, 200 US dollars in 2008, and 20 billion US dollars in 10 years. The overall speed is decreasing. However, the rate of decline is very slow. This is the same as the entire electronic information industry. In 2009, the export price dropped by 36%, and in the first quarter of this year, it also dropped by 8%. It seems that the situation of color TV is better than the overall situation of the entire electronic information product.
(See PPT). From January 2008 to March 2010, the export volume and total export volume made a trend distribution. It can be clearly seen that the export of color TV has a clear quarterly trend, but this trend is in line with the domestic market. The peak season and the off season have exactly one complement, which is conducive to maintaining the relative stability of production.
The trend of export structure needs further analysis. For the customs data, the structure of export color TV in the first quarter, the proportion of CRT in the first quarter of this year was 30.6, 30.7% in 2009, including LCD TV, the structure of export volume, basically no change, this is out of We expected that the changes in 09 and 08 are still relatively large. It can be seen that in the first quarter, CRT TV export and LCD TV export volume have achieved rapid growth at a speed of more than 40%. Compared with the previous production data, my The conclusion reflects that the speed of domestic flat panel industrialization is accelerating, and the volume of flat-panel domestic sales is greater than the export volume. On the one hand, the demand in the external market is still recovering, the base of export is unstable, and the anti-corresponding fluctuations are prevented. Unbalanced exports have led to such a problem, and what causes structural imbalances to be analyzed.
This year's color TV export trend is better than 08, 09, an important factor that continues to rise in the color TV industry.
In addition, a brief introduction to the development of color TV industry in the first quarter, this hot spot is mainly analyzed from two aspects, one is the industry hotspot, one market hotspot, industry hotspot, the first quarter around the revitalization planning and industrial chain construction, and promote domestic demand policy For the planning and industrialization has been introduced, this one is more sensitive, is the construction pattern of high-generation LCD panel production, the final scheme of 3+I has not been announced, and the other is the flat-panel display on both sides of the strait we have been promoting. Industry cooperation, from procurement and after-sales service to technical in-depth, this is the main hot spot in the first quarter, the first quarter for after-sales service, we at the 315 party, LCD flat-panel TV after-sales warranty period, including the whole machine factory for consumers, including The panel factory has a very large increase for the whole machine factory. From 18 to 36 months, the commitment of the whole machine factory to consumers is 46 months. The panel factory is still more demanding for the whole machine factory. This is the result of his monopoly.
Continue to increase support, Director Gao Sumei has made a detailed introduction, home appliances to the countryside closely related to the color TV industry, from 3,500 to 7,000 yuan in the first quarter, expanding the number of finalists, trade-in, and domestic demand should be May 1 And the second quarter has a manifestation, this policy has been implemented since the end of March, the market hotspot changes in the first quarter is more obvious, mainly around technology and product innovation, the main three aspects, one network TV, one is green energy saving, and 1D, for the network TV, I think it is still a strategic opportunity to change the fate of the color TV industry. I just introduced the integration of the three networks from the previous academicians and the high school. This year, with the further clarification of the national industrial policy, this piece has great development. This piece is the network foundation. The change, a 4C for the product, a fusion of the product terminal, and the combination of content, this fusion is easier to understand, which is also a requirement of digital transformation, that is, hardware manufacturing and software integration are getting closer, The next step is to introduce his development model and focus on it.
Green energy conservation, this piece is the eternal pursuit of human civilization. This year we are mainly the application of LED technology, the bottleneck of current product energy conservation, one is that the testing standard is not clear, how to develop a healthy and orderly industry and development atmosphere has not yet formed, how to pass the policy And levers to choose more energy-efficient products, the consumption of color TVs does not have much significance for the society. The sales of this 500-600 million TVs can stand up to three Three Gorges.
For 3D is a selling point of the product, the content industry chain behind it is a key link. This technology is still developing. In addition, this is completely dependent on the product. It should be an optional and optional content of the color TV. It is impossible to watch news broadcasts on 3D TV.
In the second quarter, a warming channel has risen steadily. This flat-panel transformation and upgrading has played down the sales in the off-season. There is also the peak season of May 1st, and the effect of the implementation of the policy of home appliances to the countryside reflects the effect of the third and fourth grades. Market expansion.
In terms of external demand, I think we can see from the picture in front of us that we basically have a stable rise in color TV exports in both 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. In the past 10 years, the color TV exports in the quarter were one. The quarter will increase by 20%, and the export volume in the second quarter will exceed 15 million units.
The mode of IPTV will also be reflected. Another important aspect is the platform for joint enterprises to establish digital public content. The overall analysis shows that the output of color TV industry in the second quarter reached 27 million units, a growth rate of 10.5%. This forecast is a bit conservative, 09 In the second quarter of the year, its output reached 24 million units, which may also create a new high. In the first quarter, due to the impact of the financial crisis, the price of LCD panels has been relatively stable since July last year. The situation, in this case, makes the adjustment of the product structure slow down in 2009, which is the main reason for the rebound of the CRT. The price of LCD TVs, the price of flat-panel TVs still exceeds the budget of some consumers.
The discussion of the development mode of IPTV, and the analysis of the experts in front, this is more of an immature view and thinking, playing a role in inspiring the basic understanding of triple play and IPTV, like the definition of Baidu Encyclopedia, The fusion of a way is a combination of multiple memory technologies to create a technology that is updated with the original technology, to form new technical capabilities, a common definition, then another is the fusion of different things into one, this is one thing to replace another . For the triple play, define one: the integration of high-level business applications, he does not surround the three networks, computer networks, telecommunication networks and cable TV physics, like the two legs of people, it is a foundation, It is the foundation of the new technology for the original technology, and it creates new creativity. From the specific application, it involves the integration of technology, network, terminal and network. I personally feel that at this stage, the triple play is essentially the integration of the three networks. It is interconnected, forming a seamless coverage, and the business is deep and cross-cutting. Based on this understanding, IPTV is a terminal display product that adapts to the triple play and consumer demand, and is based on the network. Just like audiovisual, Director Liang just now Speaking of digital home and digital home, under this new trend, color TV his form, including its large-scale use, including its final positioning, will undergo great changes, and ultimately a multimedia display terminal, narrowly understood is The product of network TV is broadly an industry. Instead of replacing it, it is a new generation of products that enrich TV sets and upgrades a new generation of color TV products.
Through communication with some experts of color TV, the consensus reached that the network TV set is the emerging multimedia terminal product composed of the terminal box supporting content service system of the main product form, and the specific Internet-enabled TV set, including set-top box, player and other terminals, not only Can access the broadcast TV network to watch a variety of TV content, but also through the Internet and other information networks and system integration means to provide users with digital audio and video, film and television programs, educational music, graphic consultation, weather forecast, and running.
The network television is compatible with the interconnection of the three network contents, thereby achieving interconnection, and is also a connected television.
We have made an analysis of the structure diagram of the network TV product, the network function integration system, the ordinary TV system, on this basis, the integrated system of the network TV, the main application program and the electronic content menu, the middle and the operating system are composed. Internet TV, an innovative color TV product, is not a new and completely new thing to replace color TV.
As an innovative product, network TV will inevitably form a new industrial chain of network TV. A new industry chain relationship will be formed around any new product. The industrial chain of network TV is composed of network TV hardware system and network service system. The structure map of the industry chain is very obvious. On this basis, we also draw a schematic diagram of the network TV industry chain. The upper part is the industrial chain of the network TV hardware system. It also includes another department of the content service system industry chain. I think there are four kinds of content: the existing radio and television program content, the Internet program application platform, which is the radio and television system using the Internet to transmit audiovisual program management specifications, as well as non-video service systems, and value-added service systems, right blue The color background is the classification of the content, the left side is an example, and new content appears, which is an understanding of the TV industry chain.
The life cycle of the Internet TV has many industry controversies. He is the ordinary short-lived life of the TV. We think it has a relatively long-lasting vitality. If it is based on the industry life cycle theory, it is basically an S-type with traditional products. The life cycle curve, but the life cycle of the Internet TV, the graph on the right side of us, is a bit like a wave. He is first of all a color TV. It has the characteristics of the vitality of consumer electronics technology, which is in the industry, including us. Old experts who have been engaged in technology and industry for many years have a deep understanding. Color TVs have been in a state of vitality and vitality for decades, and their vitality is very strong. So now the network TV has an ever-changing content space, which makes the network TV different from the traditional products. The life cycle of its products can be extended, mainly relying on the innovation of product functions. This kind of analysis, we think that the network TV opportunities have very The long life cycle has finally become the standard configuration and universal function of color TV. The development of network TV business of color TV enterprises has to solve three major problems. This is an inevitable trend of triple play, which is an inevitable trend in the development of the industry. doing what? However, according to some of our previous diagrams, a technical standard system is a hardware system, a content service system, and more importantly, to explore a win-win business model.
The technical standard system, this is the standard system for large-scale production, industrial chain and product quality integration and cooperation, then the content service system is a new value space for our manufacturing industry, which can not only provide value-added services, Personalized, differentiated services on the architecture, ultimately enabling users to achieve what they need.
In 1998 and 1998, Internet access is still extravagant. Now it is very common. Now there are a lot of network information. We want to find what we need most. At present, like Baiduâ€™s search tool, we have come to the video. The requirements for the network are not compared with the text era. Now this one. The content on the Internet, the academician just said, the capacity of 13 billion a day, a small piece of iceberg that we see every day, how do we get what we want, for video content like Baidu, maybe What we need for the content service system, why do Internet TV, some products are launched on the market, some are promotional points, the content is free, and the integration of existing content, many network TVs are not different from computers. If the computer is placed in the bedroom or study, the TV is placed in the living room to understand, not the ultimate essential meaning of Internet TV, nor a simple promotional point, which means a new value space and a foothold for business model innovation.
In view of the above work, we are also advancing. On the one hand, we are formulating relevant standards for network TV sets for hardware system related standards. This standard is divided into two parts: the standard of the receiving TV set, that is, the application standard of the network TV system technology. The standard for user-side management, that is, the network TV user authentication management system standard, is now entrusted to the industry standard-setting organization to carry out related work.
The construction of the service system, now we can see that the market or the enterprise launched, on the one hand, the company's launch of the single content service, non-audio-visual programs, in this case, the final target network TV has certain The distance, the user's demand is not satisfied, some customers complain that buying a network TV does not make any difference with the computer, paying a high price, the company unites to cooperate with a qualified service provider, the condition of using the service provider is Very demanding, the business model of cooperation is unclear, there is no way to achieve a win-win situation or a win-win situation. It remains to be tested by the market. The association is also focusing on the industry to build a public platform for digital content on the Internet. This is a key project this year. The fundamental goal is to provide a low-cost integrated solution.
There are more than 100 enterprise manufacturing enterprises, and more than 100 brands have participated in the market competition from 30 to 40. They are not building their own websites. 98% of the online content is duplicated. In the era of writing, this kind of network resources This kind of waste, everyone can bear, then to the video program, to the high-definition 3D, this network resource is unbearable, because without a reasonable application, how can save, improve his efficiency, the current video association, the basic We have set up a digital content working group. We are also working on project development with professional organizations. Finally, we are also serving the whole industry. Just mentioned, NGS serves the users. In the future, we are not only a product seller, but also a whole service. Character.
Finally, the development of the Internet TV industry requires the cooperation and efforts of all parties. The network TV is the terminal product of the triple play, and it is the upgraded TV set. Its appearance marks the birth of an emerging industry, and the network TV is the construction information. The important carrier of the society is one of the main terminals for realizing family informationization. Cooperation and mutual benefit are the starting point and ultimate goal of the healthy development of the network TV industry. I hope that there will be more opportunities and exchanges and developments in the future. thank you all.
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