Philips estimates that the global general lighting market will be 630-700 billion U.S. dollars in 2009, and will increase at an average rate of 6% in 2010-2020. In general lighting output, lighting fixtures and lighting applications account for about 70% of the total, and bulbs occupy about 20%. The light bulb part here mainly comes from the need for replacement. Some light bulbs have been calculated as lighting sources in lighting and lighting applications.
According to LEDinside's statistical data, in 2009 the global lighting market LED lighting output value of about 2.4 billion US dollars, the penetration rate was only 3.3%. Philips estimates that the proportion of LED lighting in the global lighting market will increase to 50% in 2015 and 80% in 2020.
Market Drivers: From Technology to Cost
LED is considered by the industry as the fourth generation ideal light source because of its excellent performance. LED light source is superior to traditional light sources such as incandescent lamp and fluorescent lamp in terms of luminous efficiency, service life, response time, and environmental protection.
The luminous efficiency of LED has been increasing year by year and has reached the demand for general lighting applications. According to Cree's latest results released in 2010, the luminous efficiency of its laboratory white LED has reached 200lm/w, and commercial chips have reached 160lm/w, and it plans to produce 200lm/w of LEDs in 2013. The luminous efficacy of the LED lighting module is 160 lm/w. After about 50% of the loss from the light source to the lamp, the light output of the lamp reaches 80lm/w, still exceeding the luminous efficiency of the current fluorescent lamp 60-80lm/w. And far more than the efficiency of incandescent lamp 10-15lm/w. From light efficiency, LED lighting has reached the standard of replacing traditional light sources.
Current commercial products have already demonstrated the advantages of LEDs in light efficiency. For example, LED light bulbs adopt a screw-type base design and can be directly used to replace traditional incandescent bulbs. No need to change existing lamp caps and lines, according to the size of the bayonet and the bulb Divided into E26 and E17 sizes, 4W LED bulbs can replace 25W incandescent bulbs, 6W LED bulbs can replace 40W incandescent bulbs, and 10W LED bulbs can replace 60W incandescent bulbs.
Technically, the light efficiency of LED has reached the requirement of replacing the traditional light source. At present, the main factor restricting the rapid popularization of LED lighting is its high cost. The main direction of LED lighting development in the future should not be the technical upgrading represented by lm/w, but the cost reduction represented by $/lm.
In addition to technology and costs, the active attitude of the governments of various countries and regions for energy conservation and emission reduction, and the plans to suspend production and disable incandescent lamps are important factors in promoting the replacement of LED lighting. Many developed countries plan to stop manufacturing and prohibiting the use of incandescent light bulbs around 2012. With its advantages in energy saving, emission reduction and environmental protection, LEDs are ideal for replacing incandescent lamps. Once the technology and costs are appropriate, it is expected to receive policies from various governments. On the strong support.
LED Lighting Investment Opportunity Analysis
By analyzing the replacement process of LED-to-fluorescent (CCFL) lamps in the field of TV backlighting, we can see that the LED backlighting CCFL backlighting has experienced the fastest decline in the price difference, which is the rapid rise time of the LED backlight penetration rate.
We believe that LED lighting will repeat this process instead of traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting. In the rapid decline in the price difference between LED lighting products and traditional lighting products, the penetration rate of LED lighting will rise rapidly. In the LED industry there is a law of Haitz proposed by Agilent's Roland Haitz, which is considered to be the Moore's Law of the LED industry. Since the commercialization of LEDs, the cost per lumen ($/lm) has dropped by about 20% per year, and from the data in recent years, the increase in brightness and the decrease in cost have accelerated.
According to the forecast of the US Department of Energy, the lumen cost of white LED packages will drop from 25$/klm in 2009 to 2$/klm in 2015, and the average annual cost will drop by more than 30%, while the average annual cost between 2010 and 2012 The decline is close to 40%. We believe that 2011-2012 will be the fastest time between LED and traditional lighting price spreads, and the LED lighting penetration rate will increase by leaps and bounds during this period. According to our calculations, LED lighting costs will be reduced to twice that of fluorescent lamps around $/lm in 2012. If the LED's lifetime relative to fluorescent lamps is about 2.5 times, the LED lighting will be around 2012. The total cost of lead leads to fluorescent lighting. Therefore, we believe that the large-scale substitution of LED lighting will start in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point for the LED lighting industry.
Currently, traditional lighting includes fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, and HIDs, each accounting for 36%, 23%, 16%, and 13% of general lighting revenue. With incandescent lamps banned in various countries, replacement of incandescent lamps with fluorescent lamps, replacement of incandescent lamps with LED lamps, and fluorescent lamps will be synchronized. As commercial/industrial companies are more sensitive to the cost of electricity charges, and the government is increasingly strict with the requirements for energy saving and emission reduction of enterprises, the commercial/industrial sector is more active in the use of energy-saving lighting products. We believe that the same process will be repeated for the replacement of LED light sources. The replacement of LED lighting products will first take place in the commercial/industrial area. After being well-exemplified, it will gradually be popularized in the household lighting field.
LED lighting industry chain analysis
The first half of the LED lighting industry chain is the same as the traditional LED application industry chain, but the latter part extends to the production of LED lighting modules (light sources) and LED lamps. Changes in the industry chain have brought about changes in the competitive landscape. Upstream companies have gone downstream and downstream companies have gone upstream. The pace of vertical integration has accelerated. The transformation of the industrial chain is attracting attention. In the LED lighting industry chain, we focus on packaging and application. Packaging: Modular production is the future trend.
The LED package connects the chip upstream of the LED and the lighting fixture of the downstream application, and is a decisive factor for influencing the luminous efficiency of the LED bulb, and is also a main component for determining the cost of the LED bulb. LED lighting packaging technology requires high levels and raises the barrier to entry. Different from the traditional application of the bracket package (including piranha package) and chip package (SMD), LED lighting needs more power, so the density of multi-chip package is higher, the heat generated by the application of heat, heat Poor problems can lead to rapid aging of the phosphor, which leads to a reduction in product life. Heat dissipation is an important technical problem that needs to be resolved.
COB multi-chip packaging, encapsulating dozens or hundreds of LED chips on aluminum oxide or aluminum nitride substrates with a small size and a high packing density. The internal wiring is a hybrid type, that is, there are multiple chips. In series, there are several parallel circuits, and the production process requirements of the manufacturers are very demanding. Therefore, the LED package used in the field of lighting puts higher requirements on the technical level of the packaging enterprise and raises the entry barrier.
Modularization will be the development trend of packaging. We believe that the positioning of LED lighting products should not be optional consumer products, but should belong to mass consumer products, LED light source modularization, easy mass production, is an effective way to reduce the cost of LED lighting, for non-special purpose general lighting, LED Modular production has advantages. Therefore, LED lighting package modularization will be the trend. Standard white LED packages/modules similar to DRAM will appear, supplying a large number of downstream LED lamp/lamp manufacturers.
LED bulbs/lamps and LED lighting manufacturers have entered the LED industry chain. LED lighting modules can produce lighting products through the installation of power supplies and circuits, and there will be new entrants. However, the production process from LED lighting modules to LED lamps is not a simple assembly process. The design of LED lamps involves power management and conversion, drive circuits, control and sensing, thermal management, optical path mixing and diffusion, and optical extraction. The factors and thresholds are higher than the existing expectations in the industry. The quality of products in the early stages of development may be different. We believe that the traditional lighting companies that have begun to enter the LED industry chain have a certain advantage in the LED lighting fixtures due to their accumulation in the field of optical design, such as Zhejiang Sunshine [32.25-0.09%], Zhen Mingli [4.34 3.58%], Lei. Lighting [4.07 4.09%].
The law that the channel is king also applies. LED lighting companies have two paths of development, one is manufacturing, and the other is channel. For LED bulb/lamp manufacturing companies, large-scale low-cost manufacturing is its most important competitiveness. This is also the advantage of Chinese local companies. China is already a manufacturing country of lighting, but most of the exported products are OEMs. . For LED application companies that have their own brands and channels, the advantages of having customers and the market have significantly improved the company's profitability. The law that the channel is king also applies to LED lighting applications. The two paths of manufacturing and channel are not in contradiction. LED lighting application companies with large-scale production capacity and early distribution channels will take the lead in the replacement of LED lighting.
LED lighting industry investment logic
We believe that the large-scale replacement of LED lighting will start in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point in the LED lighting industry. The replacement of LED lighting products will first take place in the commercial/industrial area. After being well-exemplified, it will gradually become popular in the home lighting field. We are optimistic about high-end packaging and downstream applications in the LED lighting industry chain. We have long been optimistic about the development of the LED industry. The next five years will be a golden period for the development of the industry. We will maintain the industry's "recommended" rating.
High-end packaging: Focusing on mid-to-high-end packaging and mid-range packaging companies that have accumulated certain technologies in high-brightness and high-power packaging, we believe that modularization is the future trend of LED lighting packaging, and we will tap to have the ability to do business from existing businesses. Companies that upgrade LED lighting packages and lighting modules.
Downstream applications: In the downstream applications of LED, we choose a LED lighting manufacturer with a certain scale and own brand, and the scale and channel are the advantages that they win in the downstream fierce competition. The LED lighting manufacturer expands from the traditional business to the solid-state lighting field, and brings about an increase in valuation. At the same time, it is closer to the consumer in the position of the industry chain, and is also an ideal defense under the declining trend of the overall electronic components industry. Variety, such as Zhejiang Sunshine, NVC lighting.
According to LEDinside's statistical data, in 2009 the global lighting market LED lighting output value of about 2.4 billion US dollars, the penetration rate was only 3.3%. Philips estimates that the proportion of LED lighting in the global lighting market will increase to 50% in 2015 and 80% in 2020.
Market Drivers: From Technology to Cost
LED is considered by the industry as the fourth generation ideal light source because of its excellent performance. LED light source is superior to traditional light sources such as incandescent lamp and fluorescent lamp in terms of luminous efficiency, service life, response time, and environmental protection.
The luminous efficiency of LED has been increasing year by year and has reached the demand for general lighting applications. According to Cree's latest results released in 2010, the luminous efficiency of its laboratory white LED has reached 200lm/w, and commercial chips have reached 160lm/w, and it plans to produce 200lm/w of LEDs in 2013. The luminous efficacy of the LED lighting module is 160 lm/w. After about 50% of the loss from the light source to the lamp, the light output of the lamp reaches 80lm/w, still exceeding the luminous efficiency of the current fluorescent lamp 60-80lm/w. And far more than the efficiency of incandescent lamp 10-15lm/w. From light efficiency, LED lighting has reached the standard of replacing traditional light sources.
Current commercial products have already demonstrated the advantages of LEDs in light efficiency. For example, LED light bulbs adopt a screw-type base design and can be directly used to replace traditional incandescent bulbs. No need to change existing lamp caps and lines, according to the size of the bayonet and the bulb Divided into E26 and E17 sizes, 4W LED bulbs can replace 25W incandescent bulbs, 6W LED bulbs can replace 40W incandescent bulbs, and 10W LED bulbs can replace 60W incandescent bulbs.
Technically, the light efficiency of LED has reached the requirement of replacing the traditional light source. At present, the main factor restricting the rapid popularization of LED lighting is its high cost. The main direction of LED lighting development in the future should not be the technical upgrading represented by lm/w, but the cost reduction represented by $/lm.
In addition to technology and costs, the active attitude of the governments of various countries and regions for energy conservation and emission reduction, and the plans to suspend production and disable incandescent lamps are important factors in promoting the replacement of LED lighting. Many developed countries plan to stop manufacturing and prohibiting the use of incandescent light bulbs around 2012. With its advantages in energy saving, emission reduction and environmental protection, LEDs are ideal for replacing incandescent lamps. Once the technology and costs are appropriate, it is expected to receive policies from various governments. On the strong support.
LED Lighting Investment Opportunity Analysis
By analyzing the replacement process of LED-to-fluorescent (CCFL) lamps in the field of TV backlighting, we can see that the LED backlighting CCFL backlighting has experienced the fastest decline in the price difference, which is the rapid rise time of the LED backlight penetration rate.
We believe that LED lighting will repeat this process instead of traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting. In the rapid decline in the price difference between LED lighting products and traditional lighting products, the penetration rate of LED lighting will rise rapidly. In the LED industry there is a law of Haitz proposed by Agilent's Roland Haitz, which is considered to be the Moore's Law of the LED industry. Since the commercialization of LEDs, the cost per lumen ($/lm) has dropped by about 20% per year, and from the data in recent years, the increase in brightness and the decrease in cost have accelerated.
According to the forecast of the US Department of Energy, the lumen cost of white LED packages will drop from 25$/klm in 2009 to 2$/klm in 2015, and the average annual cost will drop by more than 30%, while the average annual cost between 2010 and 2012 The decline is close to 40%. We believe that 2011-2012 will be the fastest time between LED and traditional lighting price spreads, and the LED lighting penetration rate will increase by leaps and bounds during this period. According to our calculations, LED lighting costs will be reduced to twice that of fluorescent lamps around $/lm in 2012. If the LED's lifetime relative to fluorescent lamps is about 2.5 times, the LED lighting will be around 2012. The total cost of lead leads to fluorescent lighting. Therefore, we believe that the large-scale substitution of LED lighting will start in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point for the LED lighting industry.
Currently, traditional lighting includes fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, and HIDs, each accounting for 36%, 23%, 16%, and 13% of general lighting revenue. With incandescent lamps banned in various countries, replacement of incandescent lamps with fluorescent lamps, replacement of incandescent lamps with LED lamps, and fluorescent lamps will be synchronized. As commercial/industrial companies are more sensitive to the cost of electricity charges, and the government is increasingly strict with the requirements for energy saving and emission reduction of enterprises, the commercial/industrial sector is more active in the use of energy-saving lighting products. We believe that the same process will be repeated for the replacement of LED light sources. The replacement of LED lighting products will first take place in the commercial/industrial area. After being well-exemplified, it will gradually be popularized in the household lighting field.
LED lighting industry chain analysis
The first half of the LED lighting industry chain is the same as the traditional LED application industry chain, but the latter part extends to the production of LED lighting modules (light sources) and LED lamps. Changes in the industry chain have brought about changes in the competitive landscape. Upstream companies have gone downstream and downstream companies have gone upstream. The pace of vertical integration has accelerated. The transformation of the industrial chain is attracting attention. In the LED lighting industry chain, we focus on packaging and application. Packaging: Modular production is the future trend.
The LED package connects the chip upstream of the LED and the lighting fixture of the downstream application, and is a decisive factor for influencing the luminous efficiency of the LED bulb, and is also a main component for determining the cost of the LED bulb. LED lighting packaging technology requires high levels and raises the barrier to entry. Different from the traditional application of the bracket package (including piranha package) and chip package (SMD), LED lighting needs more power, so the density of multi-chip package is higher, the heat generated by the application of heat, heat Poor problems can lead to rapid aging of the phosphor, which leads to a reduction in product life. Heat dissipation is an important technical problem that needs to be resolved.
COB multi-chip packaging, encapsulating dozens or hundreds of LED chips on aluminum oxide or aluminum nitride substrates with a small size and a high packing density. The internal wiring is a hybrid type, that is, there are multiple chips. In series, there are several parallel circuits, and the production process requirements of the manufacturers are very demanding. Therefore, the LED package used in the field of lighting puts higher requirements on the technical level of the packaging enterprise and raises the entry barrier.
Modularization will be the development trend of packaging. We believe that the positioning of LED lighting products should not be optional consumer products, but should belong to mass consumer products, LED light source modularization, easy mass production, is an effective way to reduce the cost of LED lighting, for non-special purpose general lighting, LED Modular production has advantages. Therefore, LED lighting package modularization will be the trend. Standard white LED packages/modules similar to DRAM will appear, supplying a large number of downstream LED lamp/lamp manufacturers.
LED bulbs/lamps and LED lighting manufacturers have entered the LED industry chain. LED lighting modules can produce lighting products through the installation of power supplies and circuits, and there will be new entrants. However, the production process from LED lighting modules to LED lamps is not a simple assembly process. The design of LED lamps involves power management and conversion, drive circuits, control and sensing, thermal management, optical path mixing and diffusion, and optical extraction. The factors and thresholds are higher than the existing expectations in the industry. The quality of products in the early stages of development may be different. We believe that the traditional lighting companies that have begun to enter the LED industry chain have a certain advantage in the LED lighting fixtures due to their accumulation in the field of optical design, such as Zhejiang Sunshine [32.25-0.09%], Zhen Mingli [4.34 3.58%], Lei. Lighting [4.07 4.09%].
The law that the channel is king also applies. LED lighting companies have two paths of development, one is manufacturing, and the other is channel. For LED bulb/lamp manufacturing companies, large-scale low-cost manufacturing is its most important competitiveness. This is also the advantage of Chinese local companies. China is already a manufacturing country of lighting, but most of the exported products are OEMs. . For LED application companies that have their own brands and channels, the advantages of having customers and the market have significantly improved the company's profitability. The law that the channel is king also applies to LED lighting applications. The two paths of manufacturing and channel are not in contradiction. LED lighting application companies with large-scale production capacity and early distribution channels will take the lead in the replacement of LED lighting.
LED lighting industry investment logic
We believe that the large-scale replacement of LED lighting will start in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point in the LED lighting industry. The replacement of LED lighting products will first take place in the commercial/industrial area. After being well-exemplified, it will gradually become popular in the home lighting field. We are optimistic about high-end packaging and downstream applications in the LED lighting industry chain. We have long been optimistic about the development of the LED industry. The next five years will be a golden period for the development of the industry. We will maintain the industry's "recommended" rating.
High-end packaging: Focusing on mid-to-high-end packaging and mid-range packaging companies that have accumulated certain technologies in high-brightness and high-power packaging, we believe that modularization is the future trend of LED lighting packaging, and we will tap to have the ability to do business from existing businesses. Companies that upgrade LED lighting packages and lighting modules.
Downstream applications: In the downstream applications of LED, we choose a LED lighting manufacturer with a certain scale and own brand, and the scale and channel are the advantages that they win in the downstream fierce competition. The LED lighting manufacturer expands from the traditional business to the solid-state lighting field, and brings about an increase in valuation. At the same time, it is closer to the consumer in the position of the industry chain, and is also an ideal defense under the declining trend of the overall electronic components industry. Variety, such as Zhejiang Sunshine, NVC lighting.
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