Take precautions against climate change

At the Cancun meeting, countries around the climate change issue launched a fierce interest game. China summed up the experiences and lessons of last year's Copenhagen, adopted a positive attitude, and achieved relative initiative. This is confirming that “all things are pre-established, not pre- The old saying goes. In order to deal with the climate problem and the low-carbon trend of globalization, we should go further to “never rain, Cherubix, and squatters”.

To deal with climate change should be based on long-term, which can be from two aspects:

First of all, climate change risks are invisible and should be planned in advance. There is a “Giddens paradox” in climate politics, which means that although climate change may have very serious consequences, because they are invisible and indirect in daily life, people seldom include it in short-term schedules. . But once the consequences of climate change are visible and specific, there is no room for maneuver. The "Giddens paradox" requires that in dealing with climate change, it is not possible to wait for the risk to emerge before proceeding. It is necessary to plan ahead and have long-term thinking.

Second, the pressure of international emissions reduction and domestic economic restructuring require us to take precautions and respond positively.

The climate negotiations are essentially political negotiations. In the promotion of global climate negotiations and low-carbon globalization, European and American developed countries are very active, especially the European Union. For them, playing low-carbon licenses can both win domestic voters and boost economic and employment growth. The developed countries currently have obvious advantages in terms of low-carbon technologies, human resources, capital, and environmental awareness among citizens. They have exerted pressure on carbon emission reductions in developing countries such as China and India during the climate negotiations, and have gradually increased their relevant levels in international trade. The carbon standard creates low-carbon barriers, thus forcing developing countries to reduce their emissions and taking the opportunity to export low-carbon technologies and management models. Once successful, they can sit back and collect money. This is on the one hand. On the other hand, China's current economic structure is irrational. To maintain stable and rapid economic development, China's greenhouse gas emissions will fall for a long time to come. Therefore, for a long time, we will also face strong pressure from the developed countries to reduce emissions.

At the same time, complying with low-carbon trends is also an opportunity for China. Facing the international financial crisis and the pressure of domestic resources and environment, the economic development mode that only rely on factor input to achieve growth has reached the limit. The transformation of the economic development mode has become China's strategic choice. This has been incorporated into the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. The direction of transformation is undoubtedly low-carbon. This requires us to actively respond to international climate change and comply with the international low-carbon trend.

Therefore, regardless of what purpose Europe and the United States promote low-carbon globalization, under the current environment in which developed countries dominate the international order, if the impact of carbon emissions on climate change is implemented as an international agreement that is binding on all parties, low carbon It will become an inevitable mode of economic development in the future. For developing countries, the ostrich policy is not a solution. Preparing for the rainy day and responding positively is the fundamental countermeasure. Only by actively integrating into the international climate framework and participating in the international climate change dialogue, and adapting rules, using rules, and managing rules in the process, can we seek advantages and avoid disadvantages.

Combining our country's reality and responding to global climate problems, the author believes that there are several aspects that are particularly important:

The first is to do basic research and enhance the right to speak. The key scientific issues related to climate change and the key issues related to the long-term interests of the country are "hard bones" and should be "successful." Compared with developed countries, China’s understanding of the scientific laws of climate change is still very limited. There is a lack of integration of major scientific issues, major socioeconomic issues, resources, environment, energy, diplomacy, and other major interests. There is no authoritative international voice on scientific issues. Therefore, systematically conducting related basic scientific research, obtaining basic data and key scientific conclusions, it is very urgent for us to strengthen our discourse power on these issues and minimize the adverse impact of climate change on economic and social development.

The second is to do a good job in independent innovation related to industry and economy. Low-carbon technology transfer is a key issue in climate negotiations. Statistics show that China needs at least 60 backbone technologies to achieve the goal of a low-carbon economy, but 42 core technologies have yet to be mastered in China. For example, China is leading the world in the use of solar energy, but high-purity silicon manufacturing solar cell technology is not very advanced internationally. Therefore, for our country, breaking the technical bottleneck and upgrading the industrial structure and adjusting the economic structure can be described as imminent. Therefore, we must have basic research. From new materials, principles, and structures, which country will break through first, one can lead the energy direction of the 21st century.

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