Deputy Director Gao Sumei, Operation and Monitoring Coordination Bureau, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
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Sina Technology News April 22 news hosted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Operations Monitoring and Coordination Bureau, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Electronic Information Division, China Electronics Video Industry Association (CVIA) and Ovi Consulting (AVC) company hosted " In the first quarter of 2010, China's electronic information industry economic operation and color TV industry research conference was held in Beijing today. Sina Technology broadcasted the conference live.
The picture shows Gao Sumei, deputy director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The following is the content of his speech:
Gao Sumei: Dear leaders, dear colleagues, good morning, according to the arrangement of the conference, let me brief you on the current situation of the electronic information industry and the development of new opportunities.
I would like to introduce to you from three aspects, one is the basic situation of the current economic operation, the second is to transform the new opportunities brought by the economic development mode to the industry, and some key work of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. First of all, let's take a look at the current basic situation of economic operation. As we all know, due to the severe impact of the international financial crisis, since the fourth quarter of 2008, China's economy has experienced a comprehensive and significant decline, and industrial growth has also appeared comprehensive and substantial. The downward trend, the number of laid-off workers unemployed increased, and the overall benefits of the company shrank. The Party Central Committee and the State Council reviewed the situation and promptly introduced a package of measures to deal with the financial crisis. In 2009, China’s economy was the first to stabilize and rebound. By 2010, we continued. Maintaining the good momentum in 2009, the overall industrial operation situation started well in 2010. First of all, from the perspective of development speed, the industrial economy showed a relatively high growth rate. In the first quarter, the national industrial growth rate reached 19.6%. Increased by 14.5 percentage points, up 1.1% from the end of last year, especially in the central and western regions, the growth rate exceeded 20%, and the electronic information industry rebounded significantly. In the first quarter of this year, the electronic information industry grew by 24%, higher than the national average. The level is 4.4%, especially the growth rate of the month has increased by 18.3 percentage points over the same period of last year, which is higher than the three percentage points in 2008, we have already Going back to the pre-crisis level.
The software industry has maintained a steady growth trend. In the first quarter, the growth rate reached 24%. The proportion of the whole industry reached 16.8%, which was 1.8 percentage points higher than the 15% at the end of last year. The proportion of software of independent brands is increasing. The proportion of software brands accounted for 42% of the entire software industry, an increase of 5.3% over the end of last year. The telecommunications industry should develop basically stable development, but the overall increase in telecom services will not increase. The total volume of telecommunication services is up 21.7% year-on-year, about 20 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, but the total growth rate of telecommunication services is still 5.3. %, especially in March, has slowed down from February, so the phenomenon of increasing income is not obvious. Also from the addition of new users, fixed-line users are shrinking, and new users are being enhanced. Newly installed users, there are also dismantling machines every year. If there is a match, the net increase of users in the first quarter of this year is only 510,000.
From the perspective of economic benefits, the business operation of the company has improved significantly. The profits of the national industry have increased by three digits. In particular, the electronic information industry has increased by more than 300, but it has increased by 1.1% compared with 2008. We have seen It has returned to the overall level before the crisis.
The loss of the company also declined, down 5.7% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, the overall development rate of the company was good, and the operating rate was also improved. Specially added jobs, 11 million new jobs were added nationwide. Positions, industrial employees are increasing, an increase of 4 million people, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, especially his employees increased by 5.7%. From the perspective of foreign trade, the export of industrial products showed a recovery growth, industrial export delivery The value of the industry increased by 22.5%. The industrial enterprises above the scale maintained a growth trend for four consecutive months in November last year. Basically, they mainly focused on small orders and short orders. The overall industrial export should still maintain the level of 2008, electronic information. The industry has not recovered to the pre-crisis level. From the March export data, it should be said that we first experienced a trade deficit in March. The emergence of this trade deficit is due to the fact that China’s economic recovery is developing towards a better momentum, as domestic demand growth has led to a gradual increase in imports. On the other hand, it shows that our international recovery is more difficult, and the external demand market is more fragile. Looking at the overall price is also rising, which led to a deficit in our national trade in March.
From the perspective of factors of production, prices continue to rise, and supply has also experienced some tension. The above chart is a purchase price index for raw materials. Since the fourth quarter of last year, this price index has risen significantly until this year. The monthly price index exceeded 110, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, especially the price of energy can be seen, more than doubled year-on-year.
At the same time, some enterprises and some regions have experienced a shortage of electricity supply. In addition to the increase in raw material prices in the first quarter of this year, labor costs are also rising, and corporate financial costs are also rising, making our overall economic cost increase by 40. From the domestic market point of view, the domestic market demand is still good, the price index is still tending to be flat, which means that our inflation rate is not obvious, by March CPI growth of 2.2%, PPI growth is 5.2%, than Last month, it was basically flat. In the electronic domestic market, we believe that the market is strengthening and the dependence on electronic exports is further reduced. In the first quarter, the value of electronic domestic sales increased by 36.7%, which was 3.4 percentage points higher than the whole industry. The dependence of electronics decreased compared with the same period of last year. With 1.1 percentage points, we expect the country to boost domestic demand in 2010 and actively promote the structure. It is expected that the industrial added value in the first half of the year should reach 16%, because last year our base was weaker by 7%, the national industry in the first half of this year. The overall growth rate was 16%, and the whole year showed a trend of high and stable. The electronics industry grew by about 22%, and the growth rate in the first quarter was 24%. The recovery is slow, the base is relatively low, and the growth rate is still over 20% in the first half of the year, and the software growth is around 2%.
The second transformation of economic growth mode has brought new opportunities to our industry.
This year, the Central Economic and Social Welfare Association pointed out that China’s response to the financial crisis in the past was marked by the obvious effect of the economic recovery. The world economy has many uncertain and unstable factors. The long-term contradictions and short-term problems in the country are intertwined. Committed to accelerating the transformation of economic development mode, this transformation of development mode has provided new opportunities and new development space for the industry. First of all, we must firstly adhere to the road of new industrialization and insist on expanding domestic demand. This year, the Central Economic Work Conference promotes growth. There must be three changes. One is to promote the coordinated development of investment and investment, and the first is to rely on foreign markets unsustainable. The overall dependence of our industry is over 60%, and 30% of export products are exported. Over-reliance on the international market, like the impact of the international financial crisis last year, the international overall market has declined, and our country's exports have also experienced a general decline, and the decline has reached 16%, then the contribution rate to China's GDP growth in 2009 is -40 %, from the overall situation of exports this year, the road to recovery of the international market economy should be a comparison Difficult, first of all, the momentum from the international are still insufficient. From the perspective of the development of global economic entities, the unemployment rate in developed countries in 2010 is still high. In countries like the United States and Europe, its unemployment rate is more than 9%, especially yesterday and an expert in the macro hospital. The US announced the 9.7% unemployment rate. In fact, the unemployment rate is registered in the same way as our country. The unemployment rate may exceed 18%, so overall, the unemployment rate in the developed countries is still high, and the unemployment rate in Japan and South Korea has also increased in different degrees in the first quarter of this year.
In addition, the international real economy is developing slowly, the conversion rate of scientific and technological progress is long-term cyclical, and the actual production conversion rate is still insufficient. Therefore, at present, the new economic growth point in the world is not clear enough. From the consumption level, this February The total sales of retail sales in the United States increased by 3%, down by 0.2 percentage points from January. Consumer markets in Europe and Germany have experienced negative growth in these countries and regions. We believe that global consumption continues to be weak, especially after the financial crisis, like the United States. As well as the consumption concepts of people in Europe and the United States have changed, the awareness of advanced consumption is declining. In particular, the US household savings rate is rising this year, the purchasing power of the market is declining, and the overall international market recovery is slowing. The world countries responded to the financial crisis last year. A large amount of investment has been added, which has led to an increase in inflation rates in countries around the world. The World Bank’s inflation rate exceeded 1% in 2010 at the beginning of the year, the United States also proposed to control at 2%, the United States has reached 1.6%, and US prices have exceeded Several times, it has reached 4.1% in February.
From the perspective of financial entities, the foundation is still unstable, the US-European deficit is climbing. In 2009, the US-European debt-to-asset ratio exceeded 10%. A large number of international hot money were in the game. Last year, countries introduced a series of policies to deal with the crisis. Some of them have some policies. The effect of the program has begun to weaken. In particular, Australia has proposed the withdrawal of policies. For some countries in Europe and the United States, the timing of the exit of economic stimulus policies is difficult to decide, and the uncertainties in the overall world are still increasing.
From the overall macro level, we believe that the global macro environment is still not optimistic. On the one hand, the prices of primary products such as oil and the fluctuation of the US dollar are still intensifying. We can see that the price of crude oil is rising recently and the fluctuation is very large. The fluctuations of the US dollar are relatively frequent. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has been relatively high. The pressure of the previous period has not changed much. However, the depreciation of the euro against the RMB is very obvious. From November last year to March this year, the euro against the RMB. The depreciation reached about 11 and depreciated from 4.6 in January to March this year. Our products exported to the Eurozone accounted for 15% of the total exports. Since the depreciation of the Euro this year is calculated at 4.6%, we will not be affected by other external factors. Overall exports fell by 1% last year.
Therefore, exchange rate changes are very obvious.
In addition, the status of the US dollar in the international are difficult to change. Although the international currency trading has undergone some reforms in the past two years, as the Central European region no longer uses the US dollar as the single currency of oil trading, this reform is difficult to change the status of the US dollar in the international arena. In the United States, most of the high-tech industries in the United States have a monopoly position. Therefore, his status is difficult to change internationally.
The imbalance of economic development in the third world also affects economic growth. Like the imbalance between developed and developing countries, we account for 10% of trade, and our surplus accounts for 2% of the world. So, like developed countries, it is basically a deficit. It will bring imbalances between developed and developing countries.
There are also imbalances between resources and consumption, including the imbalance of global climate. This now basically rises to the political game between countries. In particular, it has formed a way for developed countries to use the concept of control to control the world. Europe is the largest. In the carbon trading market, he promoted the process of the euro becoming an international currency through carbon trading. Therefore, this resistance continues to increase and the export price has dropped significantly. On the one hand, after being affected by the crisis, some developed countries have re-emphasized the development of the real economy, and have increased their efforts to reduce imports and labor costs in some of the surrounding countries. The advantage of our country is that the cost of our country is rising, and the export price is also falling. If we do not cut the price, then the competitiveness will be gone, and the price of export products will drop significantly. From the first quarter, the comprehensive export price level of the country from January to February will be reduced. The decline was 5.4%, the annual output of electronic information industry products fell by 3.6%, and the price level in the first quarter of this year fell by 8%. On the other hand, trade frictions are also intensifying. At present, the trade protection we have encountered has been constantly moving from tariffs. The non-tariff areas of environmental protection and social responsibility have expanded, while the trade to entities is expanding in the field of service trade.
In 2009, our country encountered 103 trade protections. We have 16 in the United States alone, and 7 in the electronic information industry. In January and February, our trade protection survey was 19 in the first quarter, and the amount reached 1.2 billion US dollars. In the quarter, we encountered two products, one is LED and one is software product. Everyone knows that the investigation of trade remedy damages the enterprise, whether it is the investigation of 337 is an industry, an industry. Therefore, excessive dependence on foreign markets is unsustainable. In addition, excessive investment depends on investment. We believe that it is also unsustainable. Last year, our country took the lead in getting out of the economic crisis, but our growth was mainly driven by investment. Then we look at it. a set of data.
Consumption is only 4%, investment is 8 percentage points, and exports are negative. Although this has improved this year, the contribution of investment to GDP has exceeded 60%, and the contribution rate of exports is still negative. Inside, especially the machinery industry, last year, the machinery industry said that the entire industry has the fastest growing industry, but it is driven by cars. It has grown by more than 88%. The electronic growth rate is also driven by the home appliances to the countryside. Our growth is still driven by investment, so this situation is also unsustainable.
Second, the mode of transformation mainly relies on the second production to promote the coordinated production of the first two or three productions. As we currently drive the production of one, two, three, the production accounts for 10.72%, the second production is 47.5%, the third production is 41.8%, and we are now the average annual food. The possession is from 800 kilograms to 700 kilograms. We are basically relying on imports now, and relying on genetically modified two types. This is a one-off use. It can no longer be used in the coming year, so the two types of security are also mentioned on the agenda. The production capacity of the second production is backward, the core technology is not strong, and everyone knows that the three industries are not as high as the high-tech industry. Third, relying on materials to promote the transformation of labor quality management innovation, we take the industry, the overall proportion is still the resource-based industry accounted for more than 40% of the industry.
Around the three transformations, we will mainly develop in the next stage, one will promote the development of high output and the main direction of the next stage of development. Now the proportion of the global service industry accounts for 69% on average, and the service industry in developed countries is 73%. We are now Only less than 50%, the next step in the country to develop the three production, to promote the high level of development of the three production as the main direction of the next stage of development.
In addition, we accelerated the software industry and the logistics industry, fostered consumption hotspots, and improved the consumption structure. In 2009, the total retail sales of residents was 12.5%. In 10 years, we raised 15.5%. In the first quarter, we reached 17.9%. We expect that we may be in the whole year. Around 19, of course, this 19 deducting the price factor, if there is no price factor, it is within the range of 17,18.
Policies to encourage consumption, such as the support of home appliances to the countryside, increased support for the development of new-generation communications, improve quality, improve service and guide consumption, and further create new varieties, improve quality, and guide services in the rough domestic sales. Consumption hotspots. To promote the development of electric vehicles, the state has introduced some policies to promote the purchase of new energy vehicles.
In the second aspect of transforming the development model, we will continue to accelerate structural adjustment and improve the quality and efficiency of development.
At present, our country's industry is still undergoing extensive economic development model. The industrial structure is still unreasonable. On the one hand, we have some products and production capacity accounting for more than 40% of the world, and some electronics may exceed 60%. %, this is not listed, but on the other hand, we have overcapacity. You have a surplus of over 100 million tons of steel. We have a difficult task of eliminating backward production capacity. In 2010, we have to cut out 100 million tons of iron. Therefore, our entire capacity structure is still not reasonable enough.
Other tendencies of repeated construction are more obvious. The second high-end technology production capacity and core technology are still not mastered. At present, our national RD expenditure accounts for 1.62% of GDP, which is lower than the national average by nearly 1 percentage point. Our dependence on foreign technology is more than 50%, the dependence of developed countries is below 30%, and our country exceeds 50%.
Some core technologies can't be mastered, and core technologies like some of our familiar color TV displays, Blu-ray technology, and automotive engine control systems cannot be controlled by themselves.
The situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is very worrying, more than 50% higher than the international industry, and the pollution emissions are also among the best in the world. Looking at the statistics, the total energy consumption is rising, and the intensity of energy consumption has actually not been so many years. Too big a change, although many goals are proposed, but far from the goal, the intensity of the entire consumption has not been greatly alleviated.
In addition, our country's carbon dioxide emissions rank among the best in the world. We account for more than 1:1.03 of carbon dioxide emissions, and the global emissions are only 0.48. Like the US 0.45, it is relatively high. We are higher than the world. The average level is more than half. In addition, our per capita resources are relatively scarce. In our industrial industry, the backward production capacity of 18 industries accounts for 15% to 20%. Therefore, we believe that it is imperative to accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure. This year, Minister Li made a work report at the meeting of all cadres and above. He also proposed to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure this year, and put forward a request for us to demand that we can not wait for the urgency of speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure. Slow sense of crisis, there must be a sense of responsibility that can not be held, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, accelerate the technological transformation, enhance the connotation-based development mode, the state has invested 20 billion discount interest, driving investment of 632.6 billion, continue to come out this year 20 billion discounts will further drive investment, and highlight the integration of the two industries and enhance the fine traditional industries. This provides market opportunities for the information industry and controls the total amount to curb excess capacity expansion. We will vigorously promote production-saving, clean production, extensive benchmarking, compliance, development of circular economy, green economy, and low-carbon economy, accounting for 6.5% of GDP. We are currently less than 5%.
The third mode of transformation and development is to persist in the development of emerging industries and accelerate the development of information technology. After the crisis, developed countries have put forward many new ideas and strategies, and new energy new materials, high-end manufacturing, biomedical aerospace, etc. as new growth. Point and pillar industries, as well as leading industries, some developed countries are also taking the development of information network industry as a new economic growth point and the commanding heights of industrial development.
For example, like Japan, IJAPAN strategy has been launched to increase government investment in information technology. For example, South Korea has launched IT Korea's future strategy. Australia, New Zealand and New Zealand have also updated their national digital development strategies. The United States has also proposed to develop national broadband. It is planned to invest $350 billion to develop this plan, and some developed countries have proposed new ideas to form new constraints on developing countries in the new manufacturing field.
Therefore, accelerating the development of emerging industries is an international trend. The central government has proposed to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries, and put forward the goal of 7+3, namely new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, electric vehicles, new materials, new medicines, The information industry, etc., as well as the space of the ocean and so on, and proposed some development goals.
In addition, it is to strengthen R&D investment and increase the proportion of ITV to GDP. By 2020, our country will enter the innovative national industry and become one of the world's important technological innovation centers. The whole society RD investment accounts for 2.5% of GDP. It is less than 2%, the means to the state to give some practical subsidies, tax reduction, tax rebate, accelerated depreciation, extraction of risk reserves, support for research and development, accelerate implementation and major science and technology projects, break through a number of core technologies, accelerate three The upgrading of the network has promoted the integration of the three networks. Today, the comrades of broadcasting and television have also come. This is to promote the integration of our country's three networks and we have also contributed.
Third, accelerating the development of modern service industries is a new opportunity to transform the way of economic development. For the information industry, these will bring new opportunities and market space.
I would like to give a brief introduction to the recent policy of promoting industrial restructuring in the Ministry, so that our enterprises can improve their internal strengths and develop their markets, and better use our national policies.
Document No. 18 is about to be released.
The second stable export policy continues to be consolidated. In addition to the export tax rebate, our country has introduced some export adjustments. There are also major science and technology projects in the ministry. We will not mention here. We also have technical renovation funds, as well as SME transformation and support. Funds, this also has certain help for our small and medium-sized enterprises. There is a website in SMEs that can be seen on the supporting website. Therefore, we hope that our company will use the policies in the Ministry, as well as energy-saving production and circular economy development. Support, we also have telecommunications regulatory funds, like these policies, we still have some help for our company. I hope that our company has the opportunity to learn more. In particular, we hope that industry associations will help enterprises to bridge the role of communication and help enterprises to The relevant policies in the Ministry are sufficient. The main focus of the next step is seven points, not much to say. thank you all.
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