On November 22, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 2017 draft “Conditions for Automotive Power Battery Industryâ€. One of the things that has attracted a lot of attention from the industry is that the demand for production capacity of enterprises has suddenly increased to 8 billion wh or 8 GWh, which is 40 times higher than the requirements of the “Regulations†issued in 2015.
In addition, the nickel-hydrogen battery enterprise is no less than 0.1Gh, which is 10 times before; the supercapacitor enterprise is not less than 0.01GWh, which is twice the previous; the system enterprise has an annual production capacity of not less than 80,000 sets or 4 billion watt-hours. They are 8 times and 20 times respectively.
The reason why 8 billion Wh has become the focus of the whole industry is because 140 power battery companies nationwide can only reach one capacity standard at this stage. By the end of the year, there will be about 4 enterprises with the capacity, and the remaining 96%. Enterprises do not meet the above criteria.
First, why does the country introduce such a "unreliable" standard?
The battery industry said that the country's thinking should be very clear, that is, focus on resources to build 3-5 leading enterprises, accelerate industrial integration, eliminate inferior production capacity, and cultivate high-quality production capacity. For example, the state finance allocates 40 billion yuan to subsidize 100 battery factories. The benefit of individual enterprises is not obvious; but if a few companies are subsidized, the effects and advantages will be more obvious.
In addition, from the recent introduction of various battery technical standards, safety standards policies, subsidies to improve battery requirements, etc., it can be seen that the country is very orderly in the introduction of policies to regulate, deliberately clean up the power battery industry, pool resources To support the holding of large companies with strength and technology.
Second, is the country's capacity to define the strength of the enterprise is really effective and reasonable?
A person in charge of a large domestic battery company said that this is more reasonable. The state intends to regulate the market, eliminate unqualified enterprises and backward production capacity, which is conducive to the further development of large enterprises.
A few other people said that it is not good to comment, the introduction of national policies has its own reasons, but the use of production capacity as an indicator is open to question.
Because after all, there are more than 20 large and medium-sized enterprises, their capacity is not enough, but the battery quality and technology have passed the market inspection. In addition, the enterprises themselves do not rely on scale to win. They take the road of market differentiation and win with technology and products. .
In this case, it will force these companies to use funds to expand production capacity instead of overcoming technology.
Another bus company said that the first is capacity. At this stage, China's new energy vehicle production and sales have just started, less than 2% of the traditional fuel vehicle market, the future market is experiencing growth, how a few companies support. In addition, different markets have different needs, and not 2-3 companies can satisfy them.
Third, under this situation, what impact will the industry be affected?
Mainly reflected in the following aspects:
If this standard is implemented from January 2017, more than 96% of domestic power battery companies will fail to meet the standards, which will cause catastrophic impact on the industrial chain, directly causing the inventory of products that are not up to standard battery manufacturers, and battery suppliers that do not meet the standards. A series of reactions such as production suspension and inventory.
On the other hand, first of all, the intensity and extent of policy regulation and control are too large, completely disrupting the company's own development plan, so that the original expansion plan in 2018 or 2020 had to be advanced.
However, according to the current capacity of most enterprises of 2 billion to 4 billion Wh, the expansion to 8 billion Wh often requires investment of several billion yuan. If blind investment mistakes, it will be a devastating blow to enterprises. But if you don't invest, you will face a situation of elimination.
And this is only the policy of 2017. Is there any major adjustment in the future? What is unknown? Faced with this kind of market risk, no company can dare to make fun of it.
Therefore, it is expected that the development of the entire power battery will be rapidly cooled, and the entire new energy vehicle industry will be greatly hurt.
Third, China's power battery industry will have an expansion frenzy. Enterprises can expand production, or mergers and acquisitions, or hold a group to warm up, and find ways to meet the capacity requirements.
Then, if the enterprise expands its own production, there will be serious shortages in the upstream equipment, materials, personnel and other resources. According to one person, at present, only equipment companies are all operating, and they still cannot meet the demand for capacity expansion of battery companies. The same is true for battery raw materials, not to mention the 40-fold expansion.
It is even more important to be wary of the situation of “blind investment, chaotic investment in the industry, and overcapacity in productionâ€.
Some battery companies believe that enterprises will choose more and more companies with certain technical conditions and strengths. This method is relatively safer and more reliable.
Finally, there must be a group of companies that will die. Because after the turbulent period of 2016, some enterprises have been difficult. In 2017, it seems that there will still be a period of turbulence for half a year, and the chance of surviving is small. In addition, those new to enter the company also have great risks.
Finally, another very important issue caused by this 2017 power battery specification is also the biggest concern for battery companies, that is, whether the published list of power battery specifications is still valid.
According to the power battery specification conditions released in March 2015, the country has already announced the first four batches of catalogues with a total of 57 battery companies, so the requirements of the 2017 version of the standard conditions, in addition to the production capacity, in addition to the company's technology, process, monitoring Systems, power battery recycling, etc., especially the consistency mentioned many times, have put forward higher requirements.
According to this standard, whether the first four batches of battery companies should be re-examined according to the new standards.
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